325: Harvard Business Review Writer: The Goal You Just Set Only Has a 34% Chance of Success | Kyle Austin Young

Release Date: 

August 25, 2026

Release Date: Aug 25

Most people think there are two ways to succeed: be talented, or get lucky — but there are two more no one talks about.

Kyle Austin Young is a strategy consultant and author of Success Is a Numbers Game, which outlines his probability hacking framework for achieving your goals. He's spent a decade using it with leaders and their organizations: mapping out what has to go right, removing risks, and stacking the odds in their favor.

What You’ll Learn:

  • How to calculate the real odds on any goal you’re chasing
  • The averaging trap that leaves you blind to failure
  • How to find the real threats to your goal
  • Why "think positive" can lower your odds of success
  • Two paths to success most people never consider
  • What to salvage when a goal falls apart

In This Episode:

  • (00:00) Introduction
  • (00:47) #1 Predictor of Success
  • (01:56) The Success Diagram
  • (05:52) Get Good Advice
  • (07:53) Hired as a Director at 21
  • (12:01) Success Diagram for Hiring
  • (14:16) Four Paths to Success
  • (18:00) Probability Hacking
  • (20:10) Why Businesses Fail
  • (23:15) Think Negative
  • (27:22) Repurposing Failure
  • (30:40) The $6,000 Mistake
  • (38:28) Context Changes Your Odds
  • (40:02) Prioritizing Your Goals
  • (44:22) The Edison Story
  • (49:35) Success Diagrams for Sales

Kyle Austin Young:

Kyle Austin Young is an award-winning strategy consultant for leaders and teams in a wide range of fields. At the core of his methodology is a powerful system for accomplishing big, meaningful goals that focuses on understanding and changing your odds of success. The nicest compliment Kyle has ever received happened unexpectedly when the phone rang during dinner. The biotech CEO on the other end was brief. “I just felt like I should tell you that you’re the first consultant we’ve ever worked with who did exactly what he said he was gonna do.” That was nearly a decade ago, and it has set the tone for everything since.

Resources Mentioned:

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