198: Why Smart Leaders Make Bad Decisions — and How to Stop | Rob Duboff

Release Date: 

July 31, 2025

Release Date: July 31

Winning decisions aren’t made by spreadsheets—they’re forged in the imperfect art of judgment, humility, and learning from mistakes.

In this episode, Damon sits down with Rob Duboff, co-founder of Hawk Partners and longtime instructor of decision-making at Harvard Extension School, for a masterclass on the mysteries of effective leadership and organizational success. Rob pulls back the curtain on why most choices in business and life aren’t neatly solvable puzzles, but open-ended mysteries—shaped by bias, culture, and a willingness to challenge the status quo. The pair break down why healthy conflict fuels great companies, how AI is transforming decision-making, and the science behind trusting your gut. Learn tools for fighting confirmation bias, the value of decision journals, and why the best leaders never stop learning.

From boardrooms to everyday life, this episode gives you the playbook for making better choices, building healthier teams, and turning failures into breakthroughs.

What You’ll Learn:

  • Why most decisions in life and business are “mysteries”—not puzzles with a single answer—and how to navigate them
  • The impact of behavioral economics and cognitive biases like confirmation bias and anchoring on leaders’ choices
  • How to use “decision journals,” healthy dissent, and pilot tests to strengthen decision quality and organizational culture
  • Strategies for integrating AI as a thought partner (not thought leader) in decision-making—without abdicating human judgment
  • The secret to building a thriving culture: hiring for values, fostering autonomy, and leveraging healthy friction among co-founders
  • Why decision-making and financial literacy should be taught in high school—and how lifelong learning is the real leadership edge

In This Episode:

  • 00:01 – The myth of the immortal corporation & why openness fuels lasting businesses
  • 00:58 – Meet Rob Duboff: co-founder, strategist, and Harvard decision-making instructor
  • 01:18 – Decisions as mysteries vs. puzzles
  • 02:53 – The trouble with “spreadsheet” decision-making and the power of personal judgment
  • 04:21 – Why everyone needs decision-making courses
  • 05:41 – What’s changed in decision-making over the last decade
  • 07:22 – Kahneman, Tversky, and the rise of behavioral economics
  • 10:01 – The danger of overconfidence and the pitfalls of memory
  • 11:26 – How marketers use behavioral insights to shape peak experiences
  • 12:06 – Yes-men, open conflict, and organizational survival
  • 13:15 – Preparing for AI disruption in business strategy
  • 16:30 – Using AI as a thought partner, not decision-maker
  • 19:09 – How AI can help bust confirmation bias
  • 22:14 – Anchoring, priming, and what System 1 thinking means for leaders
  • 23:03 – Gut vs. data: blending intuition with facts for big decisions
  • 26:31 – Learning from bad decisions: The power of decision journals
  • 33:27 – How healthy conflict builds stronger companies
  • 39:38 – Using pilot tests to de-risk organizational and hiring choices
  • 43:44 – Hiring for culture: questions and signals that matter
  • 46:27 – Why values and curiosity outweigh fancy degrees
  • 51:42 – Why decision-making should be a required high school course
  • 55:10 – The power of single-minded brand focus in a noisy world
  • 56:47 – How to connect with Rob Duboff and join the conversation

About Rob Duboff

Rob Duboff is the co-founder of Hawk Partners, a premier marketing strategy and research consultancy, and a longtime faculty member at Harvard University Extension School, where he teaches decision-making to executive and graduate students. Over a career spanning multiple decades, Rob has been a thought leader in marketing strategy, a trusted advisor to Fortune 500 clients, and an early advocate of integrating behavioral economics into business practice. Passionate about building healthy organizational cultures, he’s helped companies turn the science (and art) of decision-making into a competitive edge.  

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